What if…?

History is full of moments that hung on a fever, a change of wind or a messenger who arrived a day late. These articles take 29 of them, from the Danube frontier in 180 to the July Crisis of 1914, and ask a careful question: what if it had gone the other way?

Each article sets out what actually happened, why the outcome was less certain than it looks in hindsight, what an alternate world might plausibly have looked like, and how the turning point connects to later ones. Counterfactuals are speculation, not history; where historians disagree about the real event, the articles say so.

How turning points work in Crown & Plough

In Crown & Plough every era contains several turning points of history. Each has a year, a question and two outcomes: the one that really happened and a plausible alternative. When the year arrives the game rolls the outcome. If nobody intervenes, history usually holds; the chance of change starts at roughly 6–12% depending on the turning point and moves with the balance of power between the realms involved.

You change the odds by taking a side. Joining a faction in the related Currents of History story, serving a lord on one side, or fighting the other side's realms all add your contribution, and a ruler of a large realm counts far more than a peasant. With the default Weight of history setting (Plausible) the chance of the alternative is capped at 90%; As history keeps real history, and Free decides by the balance of power alone.

Outcomes chain. Some turning points make later ones more or less likely, or remove them altogether, and when you continue into the next era an altered outcome reshapes its starting map. The turning-point chain map in the World tab shows these links.

Roman Empire 4 turning points

From Trajan's empire to the Gothic crisis: a frontier province that never was, an empire split in three, an emperor who might have come home from Persia, and the battle that opened the Balkans to the Goths.

What if Marcus Aurelius had created the province of Marcomannia?AD 180 · Marcus Aurelius died on campaign in 180 and his son made peace. Had he lived, Rome might have annexed Bohemia and Moravia. What if the Gallic Empire and Palmyra had survived?AD 274 · In 274 Aurelian reunited an empire split in three. What if Gaul and Palmyra had stayed independent? What if Julian the Apostate had returned from Persia?AD 363 · The last pagan emperor died on the retreat from Ctesiphon in 363. What if he had won his Persian war? What if the Romans had won at Adrianople?AD 378 · In 378 Emperor Valens attacked the Goths without waiting for reinforcements and died with most of his army. What if he had waited?

Era guide: Roman Empire →

Age of Vikings and Coronations 4 turning points

Charlemagne's heirs, the Danes and the Magyars: whether the Frankish empire stayed one, whether Wessex survived, whether the steppe riders were stopped, and the year England had three kings.

What if Charlemagne's empire had not been divided at Verdun?843 · In 843 Charlemagne's grandsons split his empire in three. What if Lothair had kept it whole? What if Alfred the Great had lost at Edington?878 · In 878 Alfred came out of the Somerset marshes and beat the Danes. What if Wessex had fallen too? What if the Magyars had won at the Lechfeld?955 · In 955 Otto I crushed a Magyar army near Augsburg and ended half a century of raids. What if the battle had gone the other way? What if Harold had won the Battle of Hastings?1066 · Harold Godwinson beat one invader at Stamford Bridge and lost to the next at Hastings. What if he had beaten both?

Era guide: Age of Vikings and Coronations →

Middle Ages 4 turning points

Crusaders, kings and khans: the walls of Constantinople, the battle that made Magna Carta possible, the Mongol withdrawal of 1242 and the siege that made Joan of Arc famous.

What if Constantinople had held against the Fourth Crusade?1204 · In April 1204 crusaders and Venetians stormed and sacked Constantinople. What if the sea walls had held? What if King John's allies had won at Bouvines?1214 · Philip II's victory at Bouvines in 1214 sealed the loss of Normandy and sent King John home to Magna Carta. What if the coalition had won? What if the Mongols had stayed in Hungary in 1242?1242 · After crushing the Hungarians and Poles in 1241, the Mongols withdrew in 1242. What if Batu had stayed? What if Orléans had fallen in 1429?1429 · Joan of Arc's relief of Orléans saved the Valois cause. What if the city had fallen and the English dual monarchy had lasted?

Era guide: Middle Ages →

Renaissance and the Age of Discovery 4 turning points

Reformation, sultan and Armada: a monk under safe conduct, Vienna's first siege, the invasion fleet of 1588 and the battle that saved the Protestant cause in Germany.

What if Luther had been burned at Worms?1521 · In 1521 Charles V honoured Luther's safe conduct. What if he had broken it, as Sigismund did with Jan Hus? What if Suleiman the Magnificent had taken Vienna in 1529?1529 · Rain, mud and countermines stopped the Ottomans at Vienna in 1529. What if the walls had fallen? What if the Spanish Armada had landed in England?1588 · In 1588 fireships, Gravelines and the weather scattered the Armada before it could fetch Parma's army. What if the tercios had crossed? What if the Emperor had won the Battle of Breitenfeld?1631 · Gustavus Adolphus's victory at Breitenfeld in 1631 saved the Protestant cause in Germany. What if Tilly and Wallenstein had beaten him?

Era guide: Renaissance and the Age of Discovery →

Age of the Sun King and the Baroque 4 turning points

The age of Louis XIV: the second siege of Vienna, a Protestant wind, a Swedish king deep in Ukraine and the question of whether France and Spain would share one crown.

What if the Ottomans had taken Vienna in 1683?1683 · Sobieski's relief army broke the siege of Vienna on 12 September 1683. What if the city had surrendered first? What if the Glorious Revolution had failed?1688 · A 'Protestant wind' carried William of Orange to Torbay in 1688. What if his invasion had failed and James II had kept his throne? What if Charles XII had won the Battle of Poltava?1709 · Poltava in 1709 destroyed Sweden's army and made Russia a great power. What if the Swedes had won? What if France and Spain had been united under one Bourbon crown?1714 · At Utrecht Philip V renounced the French throne to keep Spain. What if the little future Louis XV had died and the two crowns had joined?

Era guide: Age of the Sun King and the Baroque →

Age of Revolution 5 turning points

Revolution and empire: whether the Coalition could stop the Revolution, whether Poland could survive, Napoleon in Russia and at Waterloo, and the Springtime of Nations.

What if the Coalition had crushed the French Revolution?1794 · In 1793 the Republic was invaded on every front and torn by civil war. What if the allies had reached Paris and restored the monarchy? What if Poland had survived the Third Partition?1795 · Kościuszko's uprising of 1794 failed and Poland vanished from the map in 1795. What if the insurgents had held Warsaw? What if Napoleon had won in Russia in 1812?1812 · The Grande Armée was destroyed on the retreat from Moscow. What if Napoleon had stopped at Smolensk and forced the Tsar to make peace? What if Napoleon had won at Waterloo?1815 · On 18 June 1815 the Prussians arrived and the Guard broke. What if Grouchy had held them off and Napoleon had won? What if the revolutions of 1848 had succeeded?1848 · In 1848 revolutions swept Europe; by 1849 Russian troops and Radetzky had crushed Hungary and Italy. What if Kossuth had won?

Era guide: Age of Revolution →

Victorian Era 4 turning points

Railways, nations and the road to 1914: Sevastopol, Garibaldi's Thousand, Sedan and the July Crisis.

What if Russia had won the Crimean War?1855 · Sevastopol fell in September 1855 after an eleven-month siege. What if Russia had held it and marched on Constantinople? What if Garibaldi's Thousand had failed?1860 · In 1860 about a thousand volunteers conquered Sicily and Naples for a united Italy. What if the Bourbon army had held at Calatafimi? What if France had won the Franco-Prussian War?1870 · Sedan in 1870 brought down Napoleon III and led to the German Empire. What if France had stopped Prussia and prevented German unification? What if the July Crisis of 1914 had not led to war?1914 · Within five weeks of the shots at Sarajevo, Europe's great powers were at war. What if diplomacy had contained the crisis?

Era guide: Victorian Era →

Play this turning point →

Counterfactual history is informed speculation. The “real” sections describe what happened; the “might have been” sections describe one plausible alternative, including the one modelled in the game.