What if Charles XII had won the Battle of Poltava?
Poltava in 1709 destroyed Sweden's army and made Russia a great power. What if the Swedes had won?
What actually happened
In 1700 Denmark, Saxony–Poland and Russia attacked Sweden, ruled by the eighteen-year-old Charles XII. He knocked Denmark out, crushed Peter the Great's army at Narva and spent years defeating Augustus of Saxony in Poland. Meanwhile Peter rebuilt his army and founded St Petersburg on conquered Swedish land in 1703.
In 1708 Charles invaded Russia. Instead of marching on Moscow he turned south into Ukraine, where the Cossack hetman Ivan Mazepa joined him. But the reinforcements and supply column under Adam Lewenhaupt were caught and defeated at Lesnaya before reaching him, and the winter of 1708–09 was one of the coldest in European memory.
In summer 1709 Charles besieged Poltava, was wounded in the foot, and on 28 June (Swedish calendar; 8 July in the modern calendar) his army of about 16,000–19,000 attacked a Russian army more than twice its size behind a line of redoubts. The attack broke down, and the Swedish infantry was destroyed in the open field. Three days later the remnants surrendered at Perevolochna. Charles escaped into Ottoman territory. By the Treaty of Nystad in 1721 Russia gained Livonia, Estonia, Ingria and part of Karelia.
The turning point
The battle was lost long before it began, many historians argue: by the loss of Lewenhaupt's supplies, the winter, and Charles's decision to fight at Poltava rather than withdraw. On the day itself, the wounded king could not command, the Swedish columns lost contact with each other among the redoubts, and the Russian infantry, now well trained and supported by artillery, stood firm.
Peter Englund's account shows how a few hours of confusion turned a risky attack into a catastrophe. A Swedish victory was not impossible, but it would have required the army to arrive in Ukraine much stronger than it did.
The world that might have been
In Crown & Plough the alternative reads: Lewenhaupt's reinforcements and supply wagons arrived in time; breaking through between the redoubts, the Carolean infantry fell on the Russian camp from behind; the tsar sued for peace, Mazepa's Cossacks slipped from the tsar's grip, and the Baltic is still a Swedish lake. The game then removes the scripted Poltava, the making of St Petersburg as capital and the Treaty of Nystad.
Beyond the game, a Swedish victory might have kept Russia out of the Baltic for a generation and given the Cossack Hetmanate a chance at autonomy under Swedish protection. Peter the Great's reforms, so closely tied to his Baltic window, could have been set back.
But Sweden's power rested on a small population and a narrow economic base. Even after a victory it would have faced a Russia many times larger, plus Denmark, Prussia and Hanover with their own claims. Many historians doubt Sweden could have held its empire through the eighteenth century in any case.
Ripples through time
Poltava is shaped by the siege of Vienna in 1683: if the Ottomans took Vienna, Central Europe is weaker and a Swedish victory becomes somewhat more likely.
Carried into the Age of Revolution (1789), Sweden still holds Livonia, Estonia and Karelia, still guards Riga and Reval, and St Petersburg never became Russia's capital.
- Shaped by What if the Ottomans had taken Vienna in 1683?
- Carries into the next era Age of Revolution
Play this turning point
Start in the Age of the Sun King (1680). The Currents of History story Great Northern War invites you from 1700: take Charles XII's side to change history or Peter's side to keep it. There is no dedicated scenario.
The turning point needs Sweden and Russia to exist and the Great Northern War to have started in your world.
Questions and answers
When was the Battle of Poltava?
On 8 July 1709 in the Gregorian calendar (27 June in the Julian calendar used in Russia, 28 June in the Swedish calendar of the time).
Why did Charles XII lose at Poltava?
His army was weakened by the loss of its supply column at Lesnaya and the harsh winter, it was heavily outnumbered, the wounded king could not lead in person, and the Swedish attack became disorganised among the Russian redoubts.
What did Russia gain from the Great Northern War?
At the Treaty of Nystad in 1721 Russia gained Livonia, Estonia, Ingria and part of Karelia, securing St Petersburg and its place on the Baltic.
Sources and further reading
Swedish and Russian participant accounts. Modern accounts: Peter Englund, The Battle that Shook Europe: Poltava and the Birth of the Russian Empire; Robert Frost, The Northern Wars; Lindsey Hughes, Russia in the Age of Peter the Great.
← What if the Glorious Revolution had failed?What if France and Spain had been united under one Bourbon crown? →