What if France and Spain had been united under one Bourbon crown?
At Utrecht Philip V renounced the French throne to keep Spain. What if the little future Louis XV had died and the two crowns had joined?
What actually happened
When the childless Charles II of Spain died in 1700, he left his empire to Philip of Anjou, a grandson of Louis XIV. England, the Dutch Republic and Austria, fearing a France–Spain superpower, backed the Austrian Archduke Charles instead. The War of the Spanish Succession lasted from 1701 to 1714, with great allied victories at Blenheim, Ramillies, Turin and Oudenarde, and Bourbon successes in Spain such as Almansa and Villaviciosa.
Then death changed the question. Between 1711 and 1712 the Grand Dauphin, his son the Duke of Burgundy and Burgundy's elder son all died, the last two of measles. The only direct heir left between Louis XIV and his grandson Philip was a two-year-old boy, the future Louis XV, who survived. Meanwhile Archduke Charles became emperor in 1711, so a Habsburg victory now threatened a different superpower.
In the peace of Utrecht (1713) and Rastatt (1714), Philip V kept Spain and its American empire but renounced his rights to the French throne. Spain lost its European lands: the Netherlands, Milan, Naples and Sardinia to Austria, Sicily to Savoy, and Gibraltar and Minorca to Britain.
The turning point
Everything hung on one small child. Had the future Louis XV died in 1712 like his parents and brother, Philip V would have been the next heir to France. A renunciation would then have been far harder to obtain, and many jurists in France held that the king could not renounce his succession anyway.
Henry Kamen and other historians note that Philip did in fact keep a strong interest in the French succession during Louis XV's sickly childhood. War-weariness on all sides, and the Tory government in Britain eager for peace, made a compromise likely, but its exact shape was not fixed.
The world that might have been
In Crown & Plough the alternative reads: the measles of 1712 took even the little Duke of Anjou; now Philip V is heir to France; he refused to renounce his rights, the exhausted alliance finally accepted it, and Spain gave up not one piece of its lands in Italy and the Netherlands. In that world Louis XIV's death in 1715 brings Philip to the French throne, and the game removes the scripted Utrecht settlement and the later Bourbon reconquest of Naples.
Beyond the game, a single Bourbon monarch ruling France, Spain, Spanish Italy, the southern Netherlands and the Spanish Americas would have been the strongest power in Europe by far. It is very doubtful the other powers would have accepted it for long; the more likely result is another great war, or a deal in which one crown passed to a younger son.
Even under one king, France and Spain would have had very different institutions, interests and elites. A personal union of two great monarchies might have proved as hard to govern as the empire of Charles V.
Ripples through time
Two earlier turning points shape this one strongly in the game: if the Glorious Revolution failed, England is not leading the coalition and the union becomes much more likely; if the Ottomans took Vienna in 1683, Austria is weaker and the union is more likely still.
Carried into the Age of Revolution (1789), Spain is a close Bourbon vassal of France, Spain holds Milan instead of Austria, and Naples is Spain's vassal.
- Shaped by What if the Glorious Revolution had failed?, What if the Ottomans had taken Vienna in 1683?
- Carries into the next era Age of Revolution
Play this turning point
Start in the Age of the Sun King. The Currents of History story War of the Spanish Succession invites you from 1701: Philip V's side pushes for the alternative, Archduke Charles's side keeps history. There is no dedicated scenario.
Your contribution in the war, and especially the outcomes of the two earlier turning points, decide how open this question is in your world.
Questions and answers
Why did Philip V renounce the French throne?
It was the price of peace. Britain and its allies would only recognise him as King of Spain if the French and Spanish crowns could never be united.
How did Louis XV survive the measles of 1712?
Tradition says his governess, Madame de Ventadour, kept the doctors away from him after the bleedings that may have hastened the deaths of his parents and elder brother.
What did Spain lose at Utrecht?
Its European possessions outside Spain: the southern Netherlands, Milan, Naples and Sardinia went to Austria, Sicily to Savoy, and Gibraltar and Minorca to Britain.
Sources and further reading
The treaties of Utrecht and Rastatt; the memoirs of Saint-Simon. Modern accounts: Henry Kamen, Philip V of Spain; John Lynn, The Wars of Louis XIV; Lucien Bély, Les relations internationales en Europe.
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