What if Poland had survived the Third Partition?
Kościuszko's uprising of 1794 failed and Poland vanished from the map in 1795. What if the insurgents had held Warsaw?
What actually happened
The Polish–Lithuanian Commonwealth lost about a third of its territory to Russia, Prussia and Austria in the First Partition of 1772. In response it attempted reform, culminating in the Constitution of 3 May 1791, often called Europe's first modern written constitution. Catherine the Great answered with an invasion in support of the conservative Targowica Confederation, and in 1793 Russia and Prussia took a second, larger share.
In March 1794 Tadeusz Kościuszko launched a national uprising in Kraków. At Racławice on 4 April his army, including peasants armed with scythes, beat a Russian force, and Warsaw and Vilnius rose. A Prussian siege of Warsaw was lifted in September, helped by an uprising in Greater Poland behind Prussian lines.
But on 10 October Kościuszko was wounded and captured at Maciejowice. On 4 November Russian troops under Suvorov stormed Praga, the suburb across the Vistula from Warsaw, and massacred much of its population. Warsaw capitulated. In 1795 the three powers divided what remained, King Stanisław August abdicated, and Poland disappeared from the map for 123 years.
The turning point
The uprising faced three great powers, so the odds were always long. Its chances rested on the partitioning powers' distractions: Prussia and Austria were at war with Revolutionary France, and Prussia's siege of Warsaw failed. Norman Davies and Adam Zamoyski describe how a few months of unity and initial success gave Poland a real if narrow opening.
The fall of Praga, after Kościuszko's capture, ended it. Had the defenders held the bridgehead, the onset of winter might have forced Russia to negotiate, while Prussia and Austria were still tied down in the west.
Austria's position mattered too. Vienna had taken no part in the Second Partition and at first stayed out of the fighting in 1794, moving troops into southern Poland only to make sure of its own share. A Russia facing a winter campaign, a Prussia anxious about the Rhine and an Austria uncommitted might, in a narrow window, have accepted a smaller Polish state rather than none.
The world that might have been
In Crown & Plough the alternative reads: the insurgents held the Praga bridge; the exhausted powers signed a treaty recognising the Constitution of 3 May; Poland was smaller, but it survived.
Beyond the game, a rump Poland in 1795 would have been dependent on the goodwill of its neighbours and probably on Russia. It might have become a French ally in the Napoleonic wars, as the Duchy of Warsaw did in reality. A surviving Polish state with its own constitutional tradition would have changed the nineteenth century in Central and Eastern Europe, sparing the region the century of national uprisings against partition.
It is also quite possible that such a state would simply have been partitioned a few years later, once the war in the west ended. Few historians think Poland's survival in 1795 was more than a slim chance.
Ripples through time
Poland's fate has no direct link to other Age of Revolution turning points in the game, but it carries forward. In the Victorian era (1850), a Kingdom of Poland exists in Greater Poland, Masovia and Lesser Poland at the start.
- Carries into the next era Victorian Era
Play this turning point
Start in the Age of Revolution (1789). The Currents of History story Partitions of Poland invites you around 1791: join the patriots to change history, or the partitioning powers to keep it. There is no dedicated scenario.
The partitioning powers are strong, but the game weights history less heavily here than for many turning points, so patriots who fight hard, especially with land of their own, can make a real difference.
Questions and answers
What was the Kościuszko Uprising?
A Polish national uprising in 1794 against Russia and Prussia, led by Tadeusz Kościuszko. It won early victories, notably at Racławice, but was crushed by the autumn of 1794.
When was Poland partitioned?
Three times: in 1772, 1793 and 1795, by Russia, Prussia and (in 1772 and 1795) Austria. Poland regained independence in 1918.
What was the Constitution of 3 May 1791?
A reform constitution of the Polish–Lithuanian Commonwealth that strengthened the monarchy, abolished the liberum veto and reorganised government; it was overturned after the Russian invasion of 1792.
Sources and further reading
Modern accounts: Norman Davies, God's Playground: A History of Poland; Adam Zamoyski, The Last King of Poland; Richard Butterwick, The Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, 1733–1795.
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