What if Napoleon had won in Russia in 1812?
The Grande Armée was destroyed on the retreat from Moscow. What if Napoleon had stopped at Smolensk and forced the Tsar to make peace?
What actually happened
By 1812 Napoleon dominated continental Europe, but Tsar Alexander I had abandoned the Continental System, the ban on trade with Britain. In June 1812 Napoleon crossed the Niemen with the largest army Europe had seen, around 450,000 men in the first wave and well over 600,000 in all, drawn from across his empire and allies.
The Russian armies retreated, drawing him deeper. Smolensk was taken in August, and on 7 September the bloody Battle of Borodino left the road to Moscow open. Napoleon entered the city on 14 September, but fires destroyed much of it, and Alexander refused to negotiate. After five weeks Napoleon began his retreat on 19 October.
Blocked from a southern route at Maloyaroslavets, the army retreated along the devastated road it had come by. Hunger, cold, Cossack raids and Russian attacks destroyed it; the crossing of the Berezina in late November saved Napoleon but cost thousands more lives. Only a small fraction of the army returned. The disaster led to the War of the Sixth Coalition and Napoleon's abdication in 1814.
The turning point
The most discussed alternative is to stop before Moscow: to winter at Vitebsk or Smolensk, consolidate Lithuania and Poland, and resume in 1813. Napoleon considered this and rejected it, hoping one more battle and the capture of Moscow would force peace.
Dominic Lieven argues that Russia's strategy and resources were stronger than older accounts allowed, and that Alexander was determined not to negotiate. Adam Zamoyski stresses the army's huge losses from disease and desertion even before Borodino. A halt at Smolensk might have saved the army; whether it would have brought the Tsar to terms is far less certain.
The world that might have been
In Crown & Plough the alternative reads: the Grande Armée halted at Smolensk before winter came and made winter quarters; the next spring the Tsar's envoys came to Vilna; the treaty weighed heavier than Tilsit, Russia returned to the Continental System, and the Duchy of Warsaw became a kingdom. The game then removes the scripted disaster of 1812.
Beyond the game, a Russian peace in 1813 would have left Britain and the Spanish insurgents fighting alone. Prussia and Austria, which joined the Coalition after 1812, would have stayed tied to France. A restored Kingdom of Poland would have been the most visible change on the map.
The empire's long-term problems would remain: the drain of the Peninsular War, resentment of French rule across Germany, and British sea power and money. Napoleon's empire would have lasted longer, but very few historians think it could have become permanent.
Ripples through time
A Napoleon who survives 1812 is far stronger in 1815: in the game the chance that the Empire survives at Waterloo rises dramatically.
If the Empire still falls at Waterloo, the Victorian era remembers the peace of 1813 as a footnote and a Bourbon king again sits in the Tuileries.
This turning point only occurs if France is still ruled by the Bonapartes, so it depends on the Revolution surviving in 1794.
- Shaped by What if the Coalition had crushed the French Revolution?
- Shapes What if Napoleon had won at Waterloo?
- Carries into the next era Victorian Era
Play this turning point
Start in the Age of Revolution, or take the scenario Lieutenant of the Army of Italy, which begins in 1796 as a 26-year-old general takes command. In the Currents of History story Napoleonic Wars, Napoleon's side pushes for the alternative and the Coalition side keeps history.
A long career in the Grande Armée, or a realm allied to France, builds the contribution that counts in 1812.
Play this turning point → Start the scenario “Lieutenant of the Army of Italy” →
Questions and answers
How large was Napoleon's army in Russia?
Estimates vary. Roughly 450,000 crossed the Niemen in June 1812 and well over 600,000 took part in all, including reinforcements; only a small fraction came back.
Why did Napoleon not winter in Smolensk?
He believed that taking Moscow and winning a decisive battle would force Alexander to make peace quickly, and feared a long war would weaken his hold on Europe.
Was it the winter that defeated Napoleon in Russia?
Winter caused terrible losses on the retreat, but the army had already lost huge numbers to disease, desertion and battle in the summer, and Russia's strategy of retreat and refusal to negotiate was decisive.
Sources and further reading
Memoirs of Caulaincourt and Ségur; Russian staff histories. Modern accounts: Dominic Lieven, Russia Against Napoleon; Adam Zamoyski, 1812: Napoleon's Fatal March on Moscow; David Chandler, The Campaigns of Napoleon.
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