What if Napoleon had won at Waterloo?
On 18 June 1815 the Prussians arrived and the Guard broke. What if Grouchy had held them off and Napoleon had won?
What actually happened
Napoleon escaped from Elba in February 1815 and regained power without a shot. The allies, still meeting at the Congress of Vienna, declared him an outlaw and prepared huge armies. He struck first, into Belgium, against Wellington's Anglo-allied army and Blücher's Prussians before they could unite.
On 16 June he beat the Prussians at Ligny while Ney fought Wellington to a draw at Quatre Bras. Napoleon sent Marshal Grouchy with about 33,000 men to pursue the Prussians and turned on Wellington, who stood on the ridge of Mont-Saint-Jean, south of the village of Waterloo. The battle on 18 June began late, around midday, after heavy rain.
Attacks on Hougoumont, d'Erlon's infantry assault and Ney's massed cavalry charges against Wellington's squares failed to break the line, though La Haye Sainte fell in the early evening. From the late afternoon Blücher's Prussians, who had slipped away from Grouchy at Wavre, attacked the French right at Plancenoit. Around 7.30 pm the Imperial Guard advanced and was repulsed, and the French army collapsed. Napoleon abdicated again and was exiled to Saint Helena.
The turning point
The great what-ifs of Waterloo are famous: Grouchy, who did not march to the sound of the guns despite urging from General Gérard; the late start, which gave the Prussians time; Ney's unsupported cavalry charges; and the Guard's final attack. Each could plausibly have gone differently.
Historians are more divided on whether it would have mattered. Andrew Roberts and many others argue that even a victory at Waterloo would only have delayed defeat: Austrian and Russian armies of several hundred thousand men were already marching, and France was exhausted. Others suggest that a crushing victory might have broken the coalition's will and won Napoleon a negotiated peace.
The world that might have been
In Crown & Plough the alternative reads: Grouchy was not late; the Prussians were pinned at Wavre and Wellington's squares broke at dusk; the coalition scattered, a new peace was signed at the Tuileries, and the Bonaparte dynasty became a pillar of Europe.
Beyond the game, a Napoleonic France after 1815 would probably have been smaller than the empire of 1812, perhaps within the 'natural frontiers' of the Rhine and the Alps, and the Congress of Vienna's settlement of Europe would have been redrawn. Belgium might have stayed French; the German Confederation and the restored monarchies of Italy might have looked very different.
A Bonapartist France would also have shaped the nationalist movements of the nineteenth century, for better and worse. Napoleon was 45 in 1815; the question of who would succeed him, his young son or another Bonaparte, would soon have arisen.
Ripples through time
Waterloo is the Age of Revolution's biggest link to the Victorian era. Its odds rise sharply if Napoleon made peace with Russia in 1812, and it only happens if the Revolution survived to produce Napoleon at all.
Carried into the Victorian era (1850), France is a Bonaparte empire with a stronger army and Bavaria, Württemberg and Saxony as its client states. In that world Garibaldi's Thousand are more likely to fail and France is more likely to win in 1870.
Play this turning point
Start in the Age of Revolution, or take the scenario Lieutenant of the Army of Italy. In the Currents of History story Napoleonic Wars, Napoleon's side pushes for the alternative.
On its own, Waterloo is one of the most stubborn turning points in the game. Win the Russian campaign first and the odds change completely.
Play this turning point → Start the scenario “Lieutenant of the Army of Italy” →
Questions and answers
Why did Napoleon lose at Waterloo?
Wellington's army held its ridge through repeated French attacks until the Prussians arrived on the French right in the late afternoon; Grouchy's detachment failed to stop them, and the repulse of the Imperial Guard caused a general collapse.
Could Napoleon have won the war if he had won at Waterloo?
Many historians doubt it, because large Austrian and Russian armies were advancing and France was exhausted. Others argue a decisive victory might have split the coalition and led to a negotiated peace.
Where did Grouchy go during the battle?
He was engaging the Prussian rear guard at Wavre, about 18 km east, and did not march toward the main battle despite hearing the guns.
Sources and further reading
Modern accounts: Andrew Roberts, Waterloo: Napoleon's Last Gamble; Alessandro Barbero, The Battle: A New History of Waterloo; Peter Hofschröer, 1815: The Waterloo Campaign; Tim Clayton, Waterloo.
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