What if France had won the Franco-Prussian War?
Sedan in 1870 brought down Napoleon III and led to the German Empire. What if France had stopped Prussia and prevented German unification?
What actually happened
After defeating Austria in 1866, Prussia led a North German Confederation, while the southern states of Bavaria, Württemberg and Baden remained outside. In July 1870 a dispute over a Hohenzollern candidate for the Spanish throne, inflamed by Bismarck's edited Ems Dispatch, led France to declare war on Prussia. The southern states joined Prussia.
The German armies mobilised faster and won at Wissembourg, Wörth and Spicheren in early August. After the battles of Mars-la-Tour and Gravelotte–St Privat on 16 and 18 August, Marshal Bazaine's army was shut up in Metz. Marshal MacMahon's army, accompanied by Napoleon III, marched to relieve it and was trapped at Sedan; on 2 September the emperor surrendered with about 100,000 men.
Paris proclaimed the Third Republic, endured a four-month siege and capitulated in January 1871. On 18 January the German Empire was proclaimed in the Hall of Mirrors at Versailles, and the Treaty of Frankfurt in May gave Alsace and much of Lorraine to Germany.
The turning point
France had real advantages: its Chassepot rifle outranged the Prussian needle gun, and its army fought hard at Gravelotte, where the Prussians suffered heavy losses. The fatal decisions were Bazaine's retreat into Metz and the political decision to send MacMahon to relieve him, straight into a German trap.
Michael Howard's classic study and Geoffrey Wawro's more recent one stress Prussia's superior mobilisation, staff work and breech-loading Krupp artillery. Most historians think France's realistic best case was a defensive war and a negotiated peace, not a march on Berlin, but even that would have kept the southern German states out of a Prussian empire.
Diplomacy mattered as much as the battlefield. The southern states were bound to Prussia by secret alliances signed in 1866, but their public opinion was far from united, and Austria and Italy were weighing whether to join France. An early French success, or a war in which France did not appear the aggressor, might have kept Bavaria and Württemberg neutral and brought allies to Paris.
The world that might have been
In Crown & Plough the alternative reads: Bazaine was not trapped in Metz and MacMahon's army did not march to Sedan; at Gravelotte the Prussian advance came to a halt; the southern German kingdoms turned their backs on Berlin, and Germany was not united. In a world where the Bonaparte empire survived Waterloo the outcome is stronger still: the imperial army holds the Rhine, and France gains the land west of the river. The game then removes the scripted proclamation of the German Empire and the capture of Rome.
Beyond the game, a Germany divided between a Prussian-led north and independent southern states would have reshaped the balance of power in Europe. No Alsace-Lorraine annexation would have poisoned Franco-German relations, and the Second Empire might have survived Napoleon III.
German unification might still have come later, by another route. National feeling, the customs union (Zollverein) and economic integration were powerful forces, so a French victory in 1870 might have postponed rather than prevented a German nation-state.
Ripples through time
Sedan is shaped by Waterloo: if the Bonaparte empire survived 1815, a French victory in 1870 is considerably more likely.
It in turn shapes 1914: in the game a disunited Germany makes a peaceful end to the July Crisis more likely, since no single German General Staff ties Europe's mobilisation timetables together.
Play this turning point
Start in the Victorian Age (1850). The Currents of History story German unification invites you in the 1860s: the anti-Prussian side pushes for the alternative and the Prussian side keeps history. There is no dedicated scenario.
History leans toward Prussia, so a large contribution on the French or southern German side is needed.
Questions and answers
Why did France lose the Franco-Prussian War?
The German armies mobilised faster, had superior artillery and better staff work, and French commanders made fatal decisions: Bazaine let his army be shut up in Metz and MacMahon's relief army was trapped at Sedan.
What happened at Sedan?
On 1–2 September 1870 the French Army of Châlons was surrounded at Sedan; Napoleon III surrendered with about 100,000 men, and the Second Empire fell two days later.
When was the German Empire founded?
It was proclaimed on 18 January 1871 in the Hall of Mirrors at Versailles, with William I of Prussia as German Emperor.
Sources and further reading
Modern accounts: Michael Howard, The Franco-Prussian War; Geoffrey Wawro, The Franco-Prussian War; Jonathan Steinberg, Bismarck: A Life.
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