What if the Gallic Empire and Palmyra had survived?
In 274 Aurelian reunited an empire split in three. What if Gaul and Palmyra had stayed independent?
What actually happened
In 260 the Persian king Shapur I captured the emperor Valerian, an unprecedented humiliation, while Germanic raiders crossed the Rhine and Danube. The empire's provinces looked to whoever could protect them. In the west the general Postumus was proclaimed emperor and ruled Gaul, Britain and, for a time, Spain from a capital at Cologne and later Trier: the so-called Gallic Empire. In the east, Odaenathus of Palmyra defeated the Persians and became the real power from Syria to the Euphrates.
After Odaenathus was murdered in 267, his widow Zenobia ruled in the name of their son Vaballathus. Her armies took Egypt in 270 and much of Asia Minor; coins began to call Vaballathus Augustus. Rome was now, in practice, three states.
The emperor Aurelian (270–275) reversed it in four years. He defeated Zenobia's army at Immae and Emesa in 272, took Palmyra, crushed a second revolt there in 273, and in 274 defeated the Gallic emperor Tetricus near Châlons on the Catalaunian Fields. Ancient writers claim Tetricus had secretly agreed to surrender. Aurelian celebrated a triumph in Rome, styled himself Restorer of the World, and was murdered by his own officers in 275.
The turning point
The split states were less fragile than they look in hindsight. The Gallic Empire lasted fourteen years and defended the Rhine effectively; Palmyra had a seasoned army and controlled the grain of Egypt. What broke them was one unusually capable emperor moving fast, and Aurelian's reign lasted barely five years before a conspiracy, reportedly triggered by a forged list of officers marked for death, killed him in Thrace.
Had that knife come a year or two earlier, before the campaign against Tetricus, the western and eastern states would have faced a Rome led by yet another short-lived emperor. Historians such as John Drinkwater stress that the Gallic emperors saw themselves as Romans defending their region, not separatists; the question is whether a regional Roman state could have become permanent.
The world that might have been
In Crown & Plough the alternative reads: beaten at Emesa, Palmyra rose again beyond the desert; Aurelian fell to his officers' swords before he could turn his army west; Tetricus at Trier and Vaballathus at Antioch still wear the purple, and the empire remained three. In that world the scripted rise of Aurelian as reunifier does not run its course.
Further out, the speculation becomes broad. A permanent Gallic state might have anticipated the division of the empire into Latin West and Greek East a century early, with a third, Syrian-Egyptian power between Rome and Persia. Diocletian's reforms, which grew out of a reunited empire, might never have happened in the same form, and Christianity would have met three different imperial courts rather than one.
It is equally plausible that the three states would have weakened each other, inviting Persian and Germanic attacks, and been reunited by someone else within a generation. The pull of the Roman idea was strong: even Postumus never declared Gaul independent of Rome, only of its emperor.
Ripples through time
The outcome feeds into the next Roman turning point. An empire that stayed divided goes into the Gothic crisis weaker, so in the game a Roman victory at Adrianople becomes slightly less likely. Conversely, if Marcomannia became a province in 180, the empire is harder to split in the first place.
In the next era the divided empire leaves only a memory: in the 800 era the coins of Gaul and Palmyra are said to still circulate in the markets.
- Shaped by What if Marcus Aurelius had created the province of Marcomannia?
- Shapes What if the Romans had won at Adrianople?
- Carries into the next era Age of Vikings and Coronations
Play this turning point
Start in the Roman Empire era. Join the Currents of History story Crisis of the Third Century (it begins around 260) with the Gallic Empire or Palmyra to push for survival, or with the legitimate emperor to restore unity.
The turning point needs a separate Gallic or Palmyrene realm to exist in your world in 274. Here the balance of power matters more than usual: the stronger Gaul and Palmyra are compared with Rome, the better their chances, and a player ruling land in either state adds a large share.
Questions and answers
Was the Gallic Empire a real empire?
It was a breakaway Roman state (260–274) with its own emperors, consuls and coinage, ruling Gaul, Britain and for a time Spain. Its rulers called themselves Roman emperors and never tried to take Rome itself.
What happened to Zenobia?
She was captured in 272 and, according to the sources, displayed in Aurelian's triumph in Rome. Several accounts say she then lived in retirement near Tibur (Tivoli); the details, such as the golden chains, come from the unreliable Historia Augusta.
Why was Aurelian murdered?
Ancient writers say his secretary, fearing punishment, forged a list of officers the emperor meant to execute; the frightened officers killed Aurelian near Byzantium in 275 while he was preparing a Persian campaign.
Sources and further reading
Zosimus, New History, book 1; the Historia Augusta. Modern accounts: John Drinkwater, The Gallic Empire; Alaric Watson, Aurelian and the Third Century; Pat Southern, Empress Zenobia.
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